The crowning jewel of the July Grafton Carnival is here, with the running of the Westlawn Finance Grafton Cup.
Held over 2350m, this race is an icon of NSW country racing and has a prize pool to match with over $200,000 on offer.
As of Tuesday, we have a field of 14 set to battle it out with the Waterhouse & Bott trained ‘Zoumon’ the favourite elect at $2.60.
He comes off a blistering win in the Listed Caloundra Cup where he led from barrier to post.
Can he do it again? With plenty of speed drawn wide, the tempo will be hot early.
The race shapes up to be another classic city vs country clash, with some of Australia’s biggest stables engaged.
Regional trainers Pat Murphy, Michael Morrison and Donna Grisedale will be keen to make their mark against the likes of Annabel Neasham, Chris Waller, John O’Shea and the aforementioned Waterhouse/Bott duo.
Our Bambino, trained by Murphy, comes off a win in the Cup Prelude and has landed the plum draw of barrier 4.
He can run better than the odds suggest.
Looking to have a bet in the feature? Luke Hovhanesian from theGreatTipOff.com has done the form and previewed the race in full.
Track Conditions
The Clarence River Jockey Club couldn’t have asked for a better weather forecast.
Crystal clear skies are set for the whole week with a top of 22 degrees on Thursday.
The track is now rated a Good 4 and the rail is in the true position.
With this shift in rail position, barrier 1 becomes even more of an advantage over the sprint races (1000-1400m).
Over the past 3 years, it has held an 11.2% strike rate. This is the highest out of all barriers by far.
For races longer than 1400m, the bias towards the fence becomes less apparent and middle draws become prime real estate.
Barriers 4-7 combine for close to 41% of winners over 1400m.
Race 7 Grafton Cup (2350m)
The Map – ( ) indicates the barrier draw
Zoumon (2) will take up the running from the soft draw.
With speed drawn wide in Spirit Ridge (12), Olympic Class (13) and Wild Chap (16) rumours have it, Zoumon may take a sit.
He has resented this in the past and it has caused him to over race.
As a result, if those out wide try to cross him there could be fireworks early.
This brings key off-speed runners Regal Lion (8), Shameless Miss (10) and Outlandos (11) right into calculations.
The most interesting runner is Bernaud (14) coming off a blistering win at Wyong.
This proven group-class horse only has 2 wins to his name but has always promised the world.
He gets a massive weight swing on Zoumon from the last time they clashed and if he had drawn better, you’d have to think their prices would be much closer together.
I can see him getting a sit around midfield with cover.
On his day he has a wicked turn of foot and can be right in the finish here.
The Favourite
It will take a brave man to step into the $2.60 quote for Zoumon.
He rises in weight to 58.5kg, loses his regular jockey in Tim Clark and faces a fast tempo out in front.
He is progressive and there is no knocking his form lines but to take the current quote is a big risk.
If he were to drift to $3.50+ he then becomes a betting proposition.
Free Horse Racing Tips
The value in the race is Spirit Ridge ($8.00).
This now 8YO is still racing at the peak of his powers, proving it last start with a 2nd behind the talented Luncies.
He improves as he gets deeper into his preparation and no doubt the Neasham yard had this race pencilled in at the start of his preparation.
Now 4th up (4:2-1-0) he drops in grade and draws well to sit in the first 4 in the running.
He is more versatile than the favourite and is just as effective taking a sit.
Leading QLD jockey Ryan Maloney retains the ride and can go one better here.
Outlandos ($8.50) is airborne this preparation.
His last two victories have been blistering and if you ignore his 3200m failure he is excelling over these middle-distance events.
He gets Ben Looker in the saddle who knows this track well and Gary Sargent can get a horse to peak in a feature event like this.
He will be charging home late.
Zoumon ($2.50) is one of the class horses in the field.
If his main rivals were drawn softer he would get a cruisy lead out in front and be hard to catch.
The speed map is against him and the booking of Rachel King instead of Tim Clark doesn’t fill me with confidence.
Monitor the market before betting.
Which Bernaud ($6.50) will show up?
A horse who has promised so much but delivered very rarely.
If he replicates his best he wins this race, but the draw and his inconsistencies are too much for me to step in with any confidence.
1st Spirit Ridge
2nd Outlandos
3rd Zoumon
4th Bernaud
Head to our horse racing tip market to access the selections of proving winning form analysts.