The July Racing Carnival held in Grafton is widely recognized as one of Australia’s top country racing events.
Over the span of 15 days, the Clarence River Jockey Club organizes five race meetings, featuring prominent races such as the Grafton Cup, Ramornie Handicap, and South Grafton Cup.
Luke Hovhanesian from theGreatTipOff.com will be previewing all the feature events of the carnival over the next three weeks to give punters a leg up.
It kicks off this Sunday with five massive preludes/qualifiers including Belflyer Prelude, Grafton Cup Prelude and the John Carlton Cup.
Let’s dive into it.
Grafton Track Patterns and Barrier Draws
Grafton racecourse, known for its flat turning track, measures 1940 meters in circumference.
The course itself is 25 meters wide, including a 400-meter home straight.
Additionally, the racecourse is equipped with four starting chutes, accommodating races of various distances: 2350m, 1700m, 1200m, and 1000m.
For sprint races (1000-1400m) you generally want to be drawn close to the fence, with barrier 1 holding the highest strike rate at 10.8%.
For races longer than 1400m, the bias towards the fence becomes less apparent and middle draws become prime real estate.
Barriers 4-7 combine for close to 40% of winners over these distances.
Track and Weather Forecast
Grafton is set to have a lovely lead-up to the races on Sunday with clear skies until race day itself.
Sunday is expected to be overcast with a top temperature of 21 degrees.
We should be racing on a Good 4 surface but as always check closer to race time for any changes to track conditions.
The rail is out 4.5m the entire circuit to protect the inside for the Grafton Cup raceday in July.
This should see those runners who sit outside the leader or with cover in the moving line as the best chances in each race.
As always please check speed maps and expected tempo before betting.
Belflyer Prelude
In tribute to the special horse known as Belflyer, the upcoming Grafton July carnival will pay homage to his legacy by naming a Prelude and Feature Race in his honour.
Belflyer, a talented Bel Esprit gelding, achieved great acclaim by clinching the inaugural Kosciuszko title in 2018 under the guidance of trainer John Shelton and jockey Adam Hyeronimus.
The race has attracted a top field of sprinters from the region, and a stack of speed is engaged over the 1115m sprint journey. At the time of writing October Revolution is your favourite at the $6 quote with a full field of 13 set to run.
Luke Hovhanesian Tips for the Belfyer Prelude
Bow enters this contest off back-to-back wins at Bowraville and Port Macquarie respectively.
He has always promised to be one of NSW’s top country performers, but injury and manners have plagued him in the past.
They now seem to be a long-forgotten memory and Bow looks ready to stamp his authority.
He gave 6kg to Tayla’s One last start and still ran over the top of her. That horse has since come out and won franking the form lines.
His general racing pattern is to get back so the wide draw shouldn’t be too much of a deciding factor.
Granted they run along in front, he will be one of the strongest late under Braith Nock.
Numbers: 1 – 11 -13 – 4
Grafton Cup Prelude
The Listed Grafton Cup is the crowning jewel of the carnival.
Set to run Thursday July 13, this is the last chance these talented country horses will have to make the final field.
This year’s prelude has attracted a strong field with even trainers from QLD entering their horses for their chance of success.
Luke Hovhanesian Tips for the Grafton Cup Prelude
It is hard to go past the favourite Olympic Class.
Since changing stables to Michael Morrison this horse has taken leaps and bounds.
His manners have improved and so has his racing pattern, choosing to ride the horse forward rather than taking a sit in the running off the pace.
He draws wide here but with minimal pressure inside of him can stroll to sit outside the lead.
Look for him to dictate to the field before kicking strongly on the turn.
It might be a nervous final 100m, but he is as tough as they come and now deep into the campaign, he has the fitness to hold them all off.
Numbers: 3 – 9 – 1 – 2
John Carlton Cup
In my opinion, the most exciting race of the day comes in the last, the John Carlton Cup with a spot in the Ramornie on the line.
Some massive names have accepted to run here that wouldn’t look out of place in a Saturday Highway / metro event.
At the time of writing, Proverbial is your favourite coming off a blistering Rosehill Highway win on the 3rd of June.
He has been kept fresh for this, so you know the Lou Mary stable mean business.
Luke Hovhanesian Tips for the John Carlton Cup
Ending the brilliant day of racing with some value in Leave Me Some at an eye-watering quote of $14.
She is deep into her preparation however trainer Cassandra Schmidt has done well to space her runs out.
You know this race would have been circled in the calendar and they will zip along out in front.
She is set to get a brilliant run just off midfield with cover and when they swing the bend she will be storming home at them late in the best part of the track.
Numbers: 6 – 12 – 1 – 5